Not him: The Impact of Bolsonaro's Election on Same-Sex Civil Unions
Title: Not him: The Impact of Bolsonaro's Election on Same-Sex Civil Unions
Abstract: Research on the reasons for marriage, especially within the LGBTQIAP+ community, has grown in recent decades, focusing on labor outcomes, housing, and legal rights. This study analyzed civil union data from 5,113 Brazilian municipalities between 2014 and 2020. Using a differences-in-differences approach, where we divided the sample between conservative and progressive municipalities, we examined the impact of Jair Bolsonaro's 2018 election on same-sex unions. We found an increase of 3.01% in the number of woman-woman unions and 2.22% in man-man unions, while woman-man unions were unaffected. This indicates a rise in same-sex civil unions in municipalities where Bolsonaro emerged victorious in the election. This increase might be attributed to greater exposure among LGBTQIAP+ community members to Bolsonaro's supporters' conservative rhetoric, which raised concerns about potential alterations to existing laws regarding same-sex unions.