In recognition of significant and sustained research contributions to Journal of Time Series Analysis Uwe Hassler was placed on the inaugural list of Distinguished Authors of this journal. Further details can be found here.
New Working Paper: The Long-Term Distributional and Welfare Effects of Covid-19 School Closures (Alexander Ludwig)
Using a structural life-cycle model, we analyze the long-term income, welfare- and distributional consequences of school closures due to Covid-19 on children. Parental reactions reduce the negative impact of school closures on children, but do not fully offset it. On average, long-term earnings losses are about 1% for all children. Those losses are larger for younger children and for children...
We develop a novel empirical approach to evaluate the effectiveness of policies against a pandemic. The key insight is that epidemic dynamics are best tracked over stages, rather than over time. Our approach uncovers variation in stages across regions and gives clean identification of the policy effect. We apply our approach to evaluate the effectiveness of the nationwide stay-home policy enacted...
New Working Paper: Conditional Quantile Coverage: an Application to Growth-At-Risk (Daniel Gutknecht)
This paper develops tests for pairwise and multiple out-of-sample comparisons of parametric conditional quantile models with an application to Growth-at-Risk. Comments are welcome. Link to paper
This paper develops tests for detecting sample selection in nonparametric conditional quantile (and mean) models. Comments are welcome. Link to paper