Adult Outcomes and Childhood Circumstances

Title:  Adult Outcomes and Childhood Circumstances 

Abstract: Previous studies have established the crucial role of early childhood circumstances in shaping children's future outcomes, skills, and economic opportunities. They have also examined the impact of poverty on human capital accumulation and the dynamics of productivity, growth, and inequality. However, certain questions still remain unanswered. First and foremost, what early childhood circumstances can predict adult outcomes, and to what extent? This study aims to address these questions by utilizing a unique and comprehensive dataset from four developing countries. We will employ eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) as a novel state-of-the-art approach. Our primary focus is to predict children's most crucial economic outcome—their wages—based on their childhood circumstances. This will help us identify children at a higher risk of experiencing poverty in the future. The findings from this study have the potential to contribute to the development of theories and inform targeted interventions and policies that effectively support vulnerable children, ensuring they have better prospects for upward mobility.