News

Current 'fundraising tour' to finance the production of new videos for the non-monetized YouTube channel WISSEN HAT KEINEN EIGENTÜMER. Funds raised so far: 3,500 € (details below)

Deutschlandfunk: Interview/Podcast about Hayek, big data, and the socialist system (10/23)

Keynote speech: Vienna Financial Data Summit (concedro GmbH), Vienna (06/2023)

Dipolmatische Akademie Wien: The Lessons from 1923 for the Euro Area, invited speaker (05/2023)

Interview: Daniel Stelter’s Podcast „Ernsthafte Bedrohung des Geldwerts“; echoed by Handelsblatt: „In der Bilanz der Europäischen Zentralbank steckt ein Sprengsatz“ (2/2023)

Winner of Teaching Evaluation (summer term 2022, „Bachelor Grundlagen“), Vorlesung: Einführung in die Volkswirtschaftslehre

Keynote speech: “Börsenzeitung Kundenforum: 75-jähriges Jubiläum”, Frankfurt (11/2022)

Winner of Teaching Evaluation  (summer term 2021, „Bachelor Vertiefung“), Vorlesung: Das monetäre System und die aktuelle Krise in Europa

Visiting professor, Université Lumière Lyon (summer term 2021)

Teaching during the pandemic (“Einführung in die Volkswirtschaftslehre”): students have a RIGHT TO KNOWLEDGE and therefore I offer face-to-face (classroom) lectures under strict hygiene regulations (as the only option for all students in the foundation courses during the summer term 2021)

Leschs Kosmos, ZDF, German television: study about students’ mental receptiveness with one of my lecture videos (27/10/2020)

Teaching/lectures (current and recent)

Einführung in die Volkswirtschaftslehre, Goethe University Frankfurt (winter term 2023/24)

Statistik, Ökonometrie (und etwas Python): Alles was man wissen muss, Goethe University Frankfurt (winter term 2023/24, undergraduate level)

The Economics of Money and Banking: An Empirical Analysis of the Relations between Central Banks, Commercial Banks, and (Gross) Capital Flows in the BoP of the Euro Area, Goethe University Frankfurt (summer term 2023, graduate level)

Einführung in die Volkswirtschaftslehre, Goethe University Frankfurt (summer term 2022, winter term 2022/23), Course Evaluation, Winner of Teaching Evaluation (summer term 2022)

Das monetäre System und die aktuelle Krise in Europa, Goethe University Frankfurt, (summer semester 2021), Course Evaluation, Winner of Teaching Evaluation (summer term 2021)

Geld und Währung, DHBW Mannheim (every winter term)

Wirtschafts- und Sozialpolitik, visiting professor at the Université Lumière Lyon (summer semester 2021)

Publications/ Work in Progress

I have dedicated several years to meticulously perfecting the book-sized paper presented below, driven by my firm belief that the lessons from the great inflations are not only widely misunderstood or overlooked, but are also essential to prevent the emergence of significant and self-perpetuating inflation in the euro area. Consequently, I decided to write this unified paper – in addition to shorter “journal-sized” pieces for the usual submitting process – to foster meaningful dialogue within the economic community that advises our policymakers.  

To really make the case that the great inflations were caused by central bank insolvencies - and to show that also the ECB or the Bundesbank could become insolvent - all aspects are relevant and belong together: the data, the econometric analysis, the historical confirmation of empirical results, a detailed theoretical reasoning, a broad review of the related or opposing literature, the application of the revealed “central bank solvency view” to the Eurosystem's balance sheet, and the confrontation of our developed rationale for strong and hyper-inflations to (mis-) leading arguments in the current debate about inflationary risks. Many of the 360 pages presented below have been enriched by the extensive and insightful critiques I've received from colleagues and central bankers after I presented my hypotheses in several widely noticed interviews ([1], [2], [3], [4]); which were also echoed by Handelsblatt. I highly value this scholarly engagement and actively welcome further critiques and discussions:

The Lessons from 1923 for the Euro Area: Enlightening the Dark Side of (In-) Solvent Central Banks’ Balance Sheets

Working papers extracted from this book-sized paper (partially in submitting process):

·         The Ends of Four Big Inflations: Enlightening the Dark Side of (In-) Solvent Central Banks’ Balance-Sheets [see sections 2, 4, 5, and appendices A-D]

·         Historical Arguments to Model “Trust” in a Currency: The Monetary Authority Between a Bankers’ Bank and the Government’s LOLR [see section 2]

·         The Monetary Model of the Exchange Rate Under Hyperinflation Revisited: New Data and the Reversal of PPP [see sections 3, 4, 5, 8, and appendices A-D]

·         Fiscal News, Forward Exchange Rates and Un-Expected Inflation in Germany After World War I: Surprising New Evidence [see sections 5, 6, 7, 8, and appendix A]

·         The Long Shadow of the Quantity Theory: The Central Banks’ Dark Side, (Mis-) Leading Textbooks, and Copernicus Upside Down [see sections 3, and 8]

·         How to Recapitalize a Central Bank: The League of Nations' Financial Reconstruction Programs for Austria and Hungary After WWI  [see section 6 and appendices B-C]

·         Can the ECB go Bust? Inflationary Risks and Eurosystem Vulnerabilities [see sections 8 and 9]

·         Target Claims and the Day After: Why we Have to Prepare for the Bundesbank's Immediate Recapitalization [see sections 8 and 9]

Other working papers / publications:

Defending the Euro from Inside Out: A Continuous Stress Test of the ECB’s Balance Sheet, working paper

Deep Structure Analysis of the Target-Imbalances: Combining Aggregated Balance Sheet Data at the Institutional Level with Gross Capital Flows from the Balance of Payments, working paper

Ownership Economics: On the Foundation of Interest, Money, Markets, Business Cycles and Economic Development. Edited by Frank Decker. Routledge Frontiers of Political Economy. Routledge, Oxford. Economica, 82: 581-582. doi:10.1111/ecca.12112

The Dissolving Asset Backing of the Euro, CESifo Forum 13, Special Issue: The European Balance of Payments Crisis edited by Hans-Werner Sinn, 63-72, online available under: http://www.cesifo-group.de/DocDL/Forum-Sonderheft-Jan-2012.pdf

Die sich auflösende Eigentumsbesicherung des Euro, ifo Schnelldienst 64(16), 58-68, online available under: http://www.cesifo-group.de/DocDL/SD-16-2011.pdf

Teaching/lectures (older, selection)

German and European Central Banking, University of Applied Sciences Frankfurt and Goethe University Frankfurt (several years), Course Evaluation

Introductory Economics, Vietnamese-German University, Ho Chi Minh City (several years)

Fundamentals of Microeconomics and Macroeconomics, DHBW Mannheim (several years)

Economics, Finance and Accounting, Graduate School Rhein Neckar (several years), Course Evaluation

Einführung in die Volkswirtschaftslehre, exercise session, Goethe University Frankfurt (several years),  Course Evaluation

Payed Revision Courses („Repetitorien“): Statistik für Wirtschaftswissenschaftler, BWL-Kurse Frankfurt (several years)

Awards (other than “regular” best teaching award / best evaluation)

Fachschaftspreis für exzellente Lehre: Best teaching award from the Student Council of the faculty Economics and Business Administration (12/2020)

Nominee of the Department Economics and Business Administration from Goethe University Frankfurt for the complete university’s best teaching award 1822-Universitätspreis für exzellente Lehre (07/2019)

WISAG-Preis: Prize for best dissertation in social sciences at Goethe University (06/2019)

Fundraising tour for YouTube channel

Liebe Alumni,

ich möchte, dass ihr wisst, dass eure Kommentare und Dankesnachrichten, egal ob unter den Videos oder in E-Mails, mir wirklich sehr viel bedeuten, auch wenn ich meist nicht darauf antworte. Ich erhalte alleine so viele E-Mails mit tatsächlichen Fragen, dass ich es häufig nicht schaffe denjenigen zu antworten, die nicht an der Goethe-Universität studieren (der Kanal hat ja schon 30 000 subscribers). Aus euren Kommentaren weiß ich jedoch, dass der Kanal vielen von euch im ganzen Land hilft und dass viele es kaum nachvollziehen können, warum ich nicht einfach mehr Videos hochlade. Das ist leider alles nicht so einfach und mir fehlt im Grunde die Zeit und die Finanzierung. Viele Aufgaben bleiben an mir hängen, auch wenn ich mich hier bei den Mitarbeitern vom 'Hochschulrechenzentrum' und von 'Studium-Digitale' herzlichst bedanken möchte, die die Produktion von hochwertigem Material ermöglichen. Um das Finanzierungsproblem zumindest anfänglich zu lösen, habe ich beschlossen, einige zusätzliche Dozentenjobs anzunehmen und meine Honorare als Sprecher zu spenden (bisheriger Stand):

·         1000 € - Keynote Speech: „Die Lehren von 1923 für die Eurozone“, conference for city treasurers and mayors organized by MAGRAL AG, Saarbrücken (10/2023)  

·         1500 € - Several Lectures: “Global & European Economic Development: Europe and a Comparison to its Competitors/Partners (US and China)”, seminar organized by Goethe Business School for a business delegation from  China Life Insurance, Frankfurt (10/2023)

·         500 € - Specialist Presentation: “Folgewirkungen aus historischen Inflationen und der Geldpolitik“, Tax & Legal Excellence, Local Lounge Frankfurt, Villa Bonn (10/2023)

·         500 € - Specialist presentation: “Preis- und Zinsentwicklung in Deutschland und Europa“, online conference for city treasurers organized by the Bundesverband öffentlicher Zinssteuerung, Munich (11/2022)

PS: ich würde natürlich auch ein etwaiges Preisgeld für selbigen Zweck verwenden (also des 1822-Universitätspreis oder des Hessischer Hochschulpreis für Exzellenz in der Lehre)